Airline Challenge Prototype

Devlog · 22 October 2026

The first build, and the bug the tests found

A prototype of the jet transition now runs end to end: a simulation, an interface and a website. The most useful thing it did on its first night was tell us that part of the economy did not work.

What exists

A deterministic simulation of 11 airlines on 38 airports, covering 1958 to 1963, with automated tests. A playable interface in two era skins. Three scenarios: a major Atlantic carrier, a small independent, and an island lifeline with a single aircraft. This website.

Route panel explaining why a route makes or loses money
Each route explains itself. The reasons shown here are computed from the simulation, not written by hand.

The bug

The first scripted strategy run produced a result that looked fine and was not. Doing nothing at all performed about as well as playing. When we looked, new aircraft were being delivered but never put to work. Orders for jets arrived and the jets sat idle at the airport, so the jet transition, the central drama of the period, barely affected anyone.

Two causes. There was no way to move a new aircraft onto an existing route, for the player or for the computer airlines. And passengers did not value jets enough: speed and comfort moved their choices too little, so a piston carrier lost little share to a jet carrier on the same route.

The fix

A re-equip action, available to the player and used by the computer airlines, moves idle modern aircraft onto the routes where they improve most. Passenger preference for jets was raised and a penalty was added for turning demand away. Two years after the first jet service, jets now carry a meaningful share of long haul capacity in the simulation. The reference figure is itself an approximation, and the data page shows the comparison.

What is still weak

  • Most reference figures used in calibration were unsourced when this was written, and a later research pass sourced two of them. 7 of 7 measures are within tolerance, which is a plausibility check and not a validation.
  • Most numbers in the data are estimates and are labelled as such.
  • The lifeline scenario is still too forgiving. Over three years, the strategy runs show it needs sharper decisions, such as capacity limits in summer and ageing aircraft.
  • Many systems are stubs or only planned. The systems page separates them honestly.

Next

Verify the data against primary sources, put the prototype in front of players, and deepen the jet transition. See the roadmap.